2014 STATEWIDE KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT DROPS

Idaho's 2014 public school kindergarten class is almost 1000 smaller than its predecessor. Could it be the beginning of a trend?

In our last post, we pointed out that Boise's 2014 kindergarten class was 150 smaller than the 2013 class, owing to lower birth rates during the recession. Now it turns out that the statewide count is down, which could have ramifications for Idaho's enrollment for the next few years.

Kindergarten enrollment in most of Idaho's large districts dropped in 2014-15. Here are Idaho's kindergarten enrollment numbers for the past several years:

Note that the drop from 2013-14 to 2014-15 in kindergarten enrollment coincides with the decline in Live Birth Rates between 2008 and 2009:

Overall, Idaho's public school enrollment continued its pattern of growth in 2014-15:

However, since each of the Live Birth Rate figures from 2009-2012 is lower than that of 2008, we may see smaller kindergarten classes in the state for several years, which could slow the rate of PreK-12 enrollment growth in the state.

Since 2009-10, Idaho's overall public school enrollment has grown by about 4%, or about 13,000 students. If the next several kindergarten classes are similar in size to that of 2014-15, Idaho's overall enrollment growth could slow to only 1-2% during the next 5 years.

Of course, other factors, such as ingress and egress of families, impact enrollment in the state. It will be interesting to see what happens with the student population, given the impact of the Great Recession on Live Birth Rates in Idaho.