Sunday, November 6, 2016

GO ON RATES TUMBLE
NEW PROGRAMS PROVIDE OPTIMISM

"Go On" rates in the Southern Idaho Conference had gained ground from 2007 (when we started tracking the data in our high schools) to 2013, . But data from the Idaho Board of Education's High School Feedback website shows that "Direct to College" and "12 month enrollment" have plummeted for the classes of 2014 and 2015, in the SIC and statewide.

The overall "Direct to College" rate sank from 50% with the class of 2013 to 44% for the class of 2015. The "12 month enrollment" rate rate dropped from 54% to 46% for the same classes.

Among the 14 largest school districts in the state, all but Coeur d'Alene lost ground in 12 month enrollment, and, with the class of 2015, only Boise and Coeur d'Alene stood at 60% or above with Boise at 60% and CDA at 61%. 

Here are the data for those districts:






So, what gives? Why have rates gone down after districts were making good progress?

Well, our best guess if that the sudden drop is due to two primary factors:


  • Many more jobs are available in the current economy
  • The prospect of the accumulation of considerable debt is not attractive to Idaho high school students or their families
It probably doesn't help, either, that certain Idaho entities have been telling Idaho high school students that they aren't "ready" or "prepared" for college, even though the data show that the measures used to assess preparedness are not particularly well correlated with success in college.

However, the Idaho State Board of Education has taken measures that hopefully will help to address the issue. The Board in 2015 began a program called "Direct Admission", in which letters of admission to Idaho colleges were sent to over 20,000 Idaho high school students based on their cumulative GPA (the best predictor of college success).

Idaho college enrollments are up this fall, so we suspect that the program has been a success. But we will know how it's affected "Go On" rates soon. The National Student Clearinghouse Direct to College reports for the class of 2016 will be available at the end of November.

In Boise, we have been very supportive of the SBOE Direct Admission program, but we are also moving to strengthen our Career Technical programs. The Boise District will add several CTE programs in the next several years. These programs will be in the areas of Electrical, HVAC, and Plumbing, three job training areas that are expected to grow by 20% or more in the next decade. These programs, which will likely not be outsourced in coming years(!), will add to the other excellent programs at the Dennis Career Center, such as Auto Body, Auto Tech, and Welding.

Interestingly enough, our business partners indicate that these jobs can often provide high five-figure incomes for students who work through the required internships. They also indicate high job satisfaction in these jobs for students who like to "work with their hands".